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Published 7: If Wall Street's bears are going to fatten up at all before this year is through, they will probably have to capitalize within the next few weeks on hunting opportunities that suddenly seem more plentiful. Political scrutiny has coincided with an the outsized weighting of tech in the market that has tested investors' appetite for the sector. Yet so far in October, several factors have slowed the market, which could make it easier for the bears to catch and take a bite out of stock values. And emerging markets sagged last week — making their recent rally look like mere bounces within oppressive downtrends rather than decisive recoveries.
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And bearish options activity finally became extreme late last week, looking a bit like the spike in anxiety that likewise has ushered in bounces. Third-quarter earnings are on track to climb nearly 20 percent, but the forecast revisions heading into reporting season have again begun to track the usual pattern of reduced estimates and more-frequent corporate guidance cuts, says Deutsche Bank strategist Binky Chadha. The climb in bond yields was the most obvious source of pressure last week. While I've argued that heavy buyback activity was more a background factor and psychological crutch for investors rather than a direct driver of stock prices, it's also true that some patients get sick right around the time they stop taking a placebo.
Sure, it's happening largely due to good news.
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What happens when the news gets slightly announcemeny great? For sure, downward revisions often precede a relief rally when numbers arrive. Companies reporting earnings in September have seen their shares clipped by more than 1 percent the day of their announcements — a harsher response than in recent periods. Bespoke Investment Group's Fedspeak monitor quickly shot from neutral to hawkish readings last week.
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Neither the bullish uptrend in the major indexes nor the upbeat tone of economic and corporate-profit growth has been upended. Stocks are testing their richest levels for this cycle vis-a-vis to bonds. Market internals breaking down The rhythm of the market itself also leaves stocks potentially vulnerable to a bear assault. Stealth correction?